论文标题
政府支出和多类治疗效果：修改的有条件独立假设
Government spending and multi-category treatment effects:The modified conditional independence assumption
论文作者
论文摘要
我设计了一种新颖的方法，可以根据潜在的结果框架，在短期内使用多类治疗效果和逆概率加权来评估财政政策的有效性。这项研究对文献的主要贡献是提出的修改条件独立性假设，以改善财政政策的评估。使用这种方法，我分析了1992年至2019年政府支出对美国经济的影响。实证研究表明，大型财政收缩会对经济增长率产生负面影响，而大小的财政扩张则实现了积极的影响。但是，这些影响在传统的多元回归方法中并不重要。我得出的结论是，这种新方法大大改善了对财政政策的评估。
I devise a novel approach to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the short run with multi-category treatment effects and inverse probability weighting based on the potential outcome framework. This study's main contribution to the literature is the proposed modified conditional independence assumption to improve the evaluation of fiscal policy. Using this approach, I analyze the effects of government spending on the US economy from 1992 to 2019. The empirical study indicates that large fiscal contraction generates a negative effect on the economic growth rate, and small and large fiscal expansions realize a positive effect. However, these effects are not significant in the traditional multiple regression approach. I conclude that this new approach significantly improves the evaluation of fiscal policy.
