论文标题
检查欧元区和罗马尼亚之间商业周期差异的驱动力
Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania
论文作者
论文摘要
这项研究旨在对欧元区和罗马尼亚之间的业务周期分歧进行解释性分析，分别是其驱动因素，因为在潜在EMU加入的背景下，输出差距的同步是最重要的话题之一。根据估计值，与2002 - 2009年相比，在Subperiod 2010-2017的向下路径上输入了输出隙同步。该论文表明，业务周期的差异与三个因素（经济结构融合，工资结构融合和经济开放性）之间存在负相关关系，同时也分别是IT与其自动回归术语之间的积极关系，分别是人均GDP人均融合。
This research aims to provide an explanatory analyses of the business cycles divergence between Euro Area and Romania, respectively its drivers, since the synchronisation of output-gaps is one of the most important topic in the context of a potential EMU accession. According to the estimates, output-gaps synchronisation entered on a downward path in the subperiod 2010-2017, compared to 2002-2009. The paper demonstrates there is a negative relationship between business cycles divergence and three factors (economic structure convergence, wage structure convergence and economic openness), but also a positive relationship between it and its autoregressive term, respectively the GDP per capita convergence.
