论文标题

从气候变化到大流行:决策科学可以帮助科学家产生影响

From climate change to pandemics: decision science can help scientists have impact

论文作者

Baker, Christopher M., Campbell, Patricia T., Chades, Iadine, Dean, Angela J., Hester, Susan M., Holden, Matthew H., McCaw, James M., McVernon, Jodie, Moss, Robert, Shearer, Freya M., Possingham, Hugh P.

论文摘要

科学知识和进步是现代社会的基石。他们提高了我们对生活中世界的理解,并帮助我们应对全球挑战,包括新兴的传染病,气候变化和生物多样性危机。对于任何科学家来说,无论他们主要是在基本知识生成还是在应用科学中工作,都重要的是要了解科学如何适应决策框架。决策科学是一个旨在查明基于证据的管理策略的领域。它为科学家提供了一个直接影响决策或了解其工作将如何适应决策过程的框架。决策科学不仅仅是进行有针对性和相关的科学研究或提供协助决策者的工具;这是一种解决问题的方法,将数学建模,利益相关者的价值观和后勤约束汇总在一起,以支持决策。在本文中,我们描述了决策科学,其在不同情况下的使用,并突出了当前方法论和应用方面的差距。 COVID-19大流行将数学模型引入了公众关注的焦点,但这是建模为决策提供信息的无数例子之一。其他示例包括风暴系统模型(例如旋风,飓风)和气候变化。尽管这些示例中的决策时间范围截然不同(从小时到几十年),但在所有问题中,潜在的决策科学方法是普遍的。弥合不同群体之间的沟通差距是科学家面临的最大挑战之一。但是,通过更好地理解决策过程,科学家将对重要的社会问题产生更大的贡献。

Scientific knowledge and advances are a cornerstone of modern society. They improve our understanding of the world we live in and help us navigate global challenges including emerging infectious diseases, climate change and the biodiversity crisis. For any scientist, whether they work primarily in fundamental knowledge generation or in the applied sciences, it is important to understand how science fits into a decision-making framework. Decision science is a field that aims to pinpoint evidence-based management strategies. It provides a framework for scientists to directly impact decisions or to understand how their work will fit into a decision process. Decision science is more than undertaking targeted and relevant scientific research or providing tools to assist policy makers; it is an approach to problem formulation, bringing together mathematical modelling, stakeholder values and logistical constraints to support decision making. In this paper we describe decision science, its use in different contexts, and highlight current gaps in methodology and application. The COVID-19 pandemic has thrust mathematical models into the public spotlight, but it is one of innumerable examples in which modelling informs decision making. Other examples include models of storm systems (eg. cyclones, hurricanes) and climate change. Although the decision timescale in these examples differs enormously (from hours to decades), the underlying decision science approach is common across all problems. Bridging communication gaps between different groups is one of the greatest challenges for scientists. However, by better understanding and engaging with the decision-making processes, scientists will have greater impact and make stronger contributions to important societal problems.

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