论文标题
在网络干扰下进行治疗效果估计的随机图渐近图
Random Graph Asymptotics for Treatment Effect Estimation under Network Interference
论文作者
论文摘要
因果推理的网络干扰模型将所有实验单元放置在无方向的曝光图的顶点,因此分配给一个单位的处理可能会影响另一个单位的结果,并且只有当这两个单元通过边缘连接时。该模型最近成为将干扰效应纳入Neyman-欧洲潜在结果框架的手段。几位作者考虑了各种因果目标的估计,包括治疗的直接和间接影响。在本文中,我们考虑了在曝光图是从图形的随机绘制的环境中,在网络干扰下进行的大型样本渐近学估计。在针对直接效应时,我们表明,在我们的环境中,流行估计器比现有结果所建议的要准确得多,并就图形矩提供了中心限制定理。同时,当针对间接效应时,我们利用生成假设在当前没有其他一致的估计器可用的环境中提出一致的估计器。我们还展示了如何使用我们的结果来对随机研究对潜在干扰效应的敏感性进行实际评估。总体而言,我们的结果突出了随机图渐近学在理解网络干扰下因果推断的实用性和限制方面的希望。
The network interference model for causal inference places all experimental units at the vertices of an undirected exposure graph, such that treatment assigned to one unit may affect the outcome of another unit if and only if these two units are connected by an edge. This model has recently gained popularity as means of incorporating interference effects into the Neyman--Rubin potential outcomes framework; and several authors have considered estimation of various causal targets, including the direct and indirect effects of treatment. In this paper, we consider large-sample asymptotics for treatment effect estimation under network interference in a setting where the exposure graph is a random draw from a graphon. When targeting the direct effect, we show that -- in our setting -- popular estimators are considerably more accurate than existing results suggest, and provide a central limit theorem in terms of moments of the graphon. Meanwhile, when targeting the indirect effect, we leverage our generative assumptions to propose a consistent estimator in a setting where no other consistent estimators are currently available. We also show how our results can be used to conduct a practical assessment of the sensitivity of randomized study inference to potential interference effects. Overall, our results highlight the promise of random graph asymptotics in understanding the practicality and limits of causal inference under network interference.