论文标题
使用多武装强盗方法优化COVID-19测试策略的框架
A framework for optimizing COVID-19 testing policy using a Multi Armed Bandit approach
论文作者
论文摘要
测试是解决COVID-19大流行的重要组成部分。由于资源的限制,测试的可用性是一种瓶颈,因此有效地确定了个人的优先级。在这里,我们讨论了不同的优先级政策对COVID-19的患者发现的影响以及政府和卫生组织使用结果进行有效决策的能力。我们建议一个测试框架,以平衡对积极个体的最大发现,并需要基于人群的监视,旨在了解疾病的传播和特征。该框架从类似的方法中汲取了基于风险评分对个人的排名,然后保留一部分随机抽样的能力的优先级。这种方法是多军伴侣的应用,最大程度地提高了对基本分布的探索/开发。我们发现,可以使用一些简单的功能对个人进行有效测试的排名,并且使用此类模型对他们进行排名,我们可以使用少于20%的测试能力或92.1%(CI:91.1%-93.2%)的积极个人捕获65%(CI:64.7%-68.3%)的积极个体,使用了70%的测试,该阳性个体使用了70%的测试,该测试允许进行了允许的重大效果。我们的方法使专家和决策者能够根据需要定制所得的政策,从而允许对排名政策的透明度以及理解疾病在人群中传播并以知情方式迅速反应的能力。
Testing is an important part of tackling the COVID-19 pandemic. Availability of testing is a bottleneck due to constrained resources and effective prioritization of individuals is necessary. Here, we discuss the impact of different prioritization policies on COVID-19 patient discovery and the ability of governments and health organizations to use the results for effective decision making. We suggest a framework for testing that balances the maximal discovery of positive individuals with the need for population-based surveillance aimed at understanding disease spread and characteristics. This framework draws from similar approaches to prioritization in the domain of cyber-security based on ranking individuals using a risk score and then reserving a portion of the capacity for random sampling. This approach is an application of Multi-Armed-Bandits maximizing exploration/exploitation of the underlying distribution. We find that individuals can be ranked for effective testing using a few simple features, and that ranking them using such models we can capture 65% (CI: 64.7%-68.3%) of the positive individuals using less than 20% of the testing capacity or 92.1% (CI: 91.1%-93.2%) of positives individuals using 70% of the capacity, allowing reserving a significant portion of the tests for population studies. Our approach allows experts and decision-makers to tailor the resulting policies as needed allowing transparency into the ranking policy and the ability to understand the disease spread in the population and react quickly and in an informed manner.