论文标题
COVID-19：如果免疫减弱，该怎么办？
COVID-19: What If Immunity Wanes?
论文作者
论文摘要
使用一个简单的经济模型，社会持续的模型减少了传染力，我们研究了免疫力对流行病学动态和社会活动的含义。如果免疫力减弱，我们发现Covid-19可能会变得流行，而社交势不足道一直存在，直到发现疫苗或治愈。但是，减弱的免疫力不一定会改变大流行病的最佳作用。分散的平衡实际上独立于减弱的免疫力，直到接近峰值感染。对于集中式平衡，降低免疫力的相关性降低了寻找疫苗或治愈的可能性，感染成本（例如，感染率）以及其他降低毒药的NPI（例如，隔离和使用隔离和使用）。在校准至2020年7月的模拟中，我们的模型表明，直到至少2021年至少在2021年之前，逐渐减弱的免疫力对于集中式平衡就不重要。这为个人和政策制定者提供了至关重要的时间，以了解对SARS-COV-2的免疫力，然后才变得至关重要。
Using a simple economic model in which social-distancing reduces contagion, we study the implications of waning immunity for the epidemiological dynamics and social activity. If immunity wanes, we find that COVID-19 likely becomes endemic and that social-distancing is here to stay until the discovery of a vaccine or cure. But waning immunity does not necessarily change optimal actions on the onset of the pandemic. Decentralized equilibria are virtually independent of waning immunity until close to peak infections. For centralized equilibria, the relevance of waning immunity decreases in the probability of finding a vaccine or cure, the costs of infection (e.g., infection-fatality rate), and the presence of other NPIs that lower contagion (e.g., quarantining and mask use). In simulations calibrated to July 2020, our model suggests that waning immunity is virtually unimportant for centralized equilibria until at least 2021. This provides vital time for individuals and policymakers to learn about immunity against SARS-CoV-2 before it becomes critical.
