论文标题

人群预测2018年FIFA男子世界杯的智慧

Wisdom of the crowds forecasting the 2018 FIFA Men's World Cup

论文作者

Inácio, Marco Henrique de Almeida, Izbicki, Rafael, Lopes, Danilo Lourenço, Salasar, Luis Ernesto, Poloniato, João, Diniz, Marcio Alves

论文摘要

FIFA男子世界杯锦标赛(WCT)是最重要的足球比赛(足球),引起了全球关注。巴西足球迷的一种流行练习是组织比赛,每个参与者都会猜测每场比赛的最终成绩。然后,根据某些评分规则对参与者进行排名。受这些竞赛的启发,我们创建了一个网站来举办在线竞赛,其中要求参与者对即将到来的WCT比赛结果的概率。每一轮比赛之后,所有基于适当评分规则的用户排名。本文研究了一些旨在提取人群智慧的方法的性能,这些方法是使用一些或全部可用预测的汇总预测。将以后的方法与更简单的预测策略以及统计预测模型进行比较。我们的发现证实了以下假设:至少对于体育赛事,人群的智慧提供了一种竞争性的预测策略。具体来说,其中一些策略能够在我们的比赛中取得高分。

The FIFA Men's World Cup Tournament (WCT) is the most important football (soccer) competition, attracting worldwide attention. A popular practice among football fans in Brazil is to organize contests in which each participant informs guesses on the final score of each match. The participants are then ranked according to some scoring rule. Inspired by these contests, we created a website to hold an online contest, in which participants were asked for their probabilities on the outcomes of upcoming matches of the WCT. After each round of the tournament, the ranking of all users based on a proper scoring rule were published. This paper studies the performance of some methods intended to extract the wisdom of the crowds, which are aggregated forecasts that uses some or all of the forecasts available. The later methods are compared to simpler forecasting strategies as well as to statistical prediction models. Our findings corroborate the hypothesis that, at least for sporting events, the wisdom of the crowds offers a competitive forecasting strategy. Specifically, some of these strategies were able to achieve high scores in our contest.

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