论文标题
递归隔间模型的流行病和应用的递归隔室模型
Proposal of a recursive compartment model of epidemics and applications to the Covid-19 pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
这是正在进行的工作。我们可以让人们能够发现这个想法有用。我们为流行病的传播提出了一个离散的，递归的5室模型，我们称之为{\ em Sepir-Model}。在通常对COVID-19大流行的轻度假设下，它可用于从与数据密切相关的少数参数中重现流行病的发展。我们在德国和瑞士的发展中证明了这一点。它还允许假设几乎恒定的繁殖数量进行模型预测。因此，它可能是阐明哪些干预措施可能最有效的有用工具。在未来的工作中，我们将讨论该模型和更多国家的其他方面。
This is work in progress. We make it accessible hoping that people might find the idea useful. We propose a discrete, recursive 5-compartment model for the spread of epidemics, which we call {\em SEPIR-model}. Under mild assumptions which typically are fulfilled for the Covid-19 pandemic it can be used to reproduce the development of an epidemic from a small number of parameters closely related to the data. We demonstrate this at the development in Germany and Switzerland. It also allows model predictions assuming nearly constant reproduction numbers. Thus it might be a useful tool for shedding light on which interventions might be most effective in the future. In future work we will discuss other aspects of the model and more countries.
