学术文献库

The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model as well as its generalizations are extensively used for the study of the spread of infectious diseases, and for the understanding of the dynamical evolution of epidemics. From SIR type models only the model without vital dynamics has an exact analytic solution, which can be obtained in an exact parametric form. The SIR model with vital dynamics, the simplest extension of the basic SIR model, does not admit a closed form representation of the solution. However, in order to perform the comparison with the epidemiological data accurate representations of the time evolution of the SIR model with vital dynamics would be very useful. In the present paper, we obtain first the basic evolution equation of the SIR model with vital dynamics, which is given by a strongly nonlinear second order differential equation. Then we obtain a series representation of the solution of the model, by using the Adomian and Laplace-Adomian Decomposition Methods to solve the dynamical evolution equation of the model. The solutions are expressed in the form of infinite series. The series representations of the time evolution of the SIR model with vital dynamics are compared with the exact numerical solutions of the model, and we find that, at least for a specific range of parameters, there is a good agreement between the Adomian and Laplace-Adomian semianalytical solutions, containing only a small number of terms, and the numerical results.