论文标题

激励措施,锁定和测试:从修昔底德的分析到Covid-19

Incentives, lockdown, and testing: from Thucydides's analysis to the COVID-19 pandemic

论文作者

Hubert, Emma, Mastrolia, Thibaut, Possamaï, Dylan, Warin, Xavier

论文摘要

在这项工作中,我们提供了一种一般的数学形式主义,以研究对流行病的最佳控制,例如COVID-19大流行,通过锁定和测试的激励措施。特别是,我们将政府与人口之间的相互作用建模为与道德危害,àlaCvitanić,possamaï和Touzi [27]的主要问题问题[27],而流行病是根据compertaltal的随机sis或sir模型所提出的,如Gray,Gray,Grey,Greenhalgh,Pan,Mao,Mao和Buc,Mao,Huser和Buc,Huser,Huser,Huser,Huser,Huser,Huser,Huser,Huser,Mao,and Huser,Huser,Huce,Hucer,and buc,以及sir [45)[45 Vetro [88]。更确切地说,为了限制病毒的传播,人口可以通过降低个体之间的相互作用来降低疾病的传播率。但是,这项努力无法由政府对人口的社会和货币成本进行。为了减轻这一成本,从而鼓励人口封锁,政府可以以税收或补贴的形式制定激励政策。此外,政府还可以实施一项测试政策,以便更准确地了解该国在该国的传播并隔离感染者。在技​​术结果方面,我们证明了税收的最佳形式,该税收的比例以及人口的最佳努力,即响应于此税的传输率。然后,政府的优化问题归结为解决汉密尔顿 - 雅各比 - 贝尔曼方程。数值结果证实,如果实施税收政策,则鼓励人口大大减少其相互作用。如果政府还调整了其测试政策,那么在人口方面需要减少努力,那么个人几乎可以像往常一样互动,并且该流行病在很大程度上是通过对正面测试的个体的有针对性隔离所包含的。

In this work, we provide a general mathematical formalism to study the optimal control of an epidemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, via incentives to lockdown and testing. In particular, we model the interplay between the government and the population as a principal-agent problem with moral hazard, à la Cvitanić, Possamaï, and Touzi [27], while an epidemic is spreading according to dynamics given by compartmental stochastic SIS or SIR models, as proposed respectively by Gray, Greenhalgh, Hu, Mao, and Pan [45] and Tornatore, Buccellato, and Vetro [88]. More precisely, to limit the spread of a virus, the population can decrease the transmission rate of the disease by reducing interactions between individuals. However, this effort, which cannot be perfectly monitored by the government, comes at social and monetary cost for the population. To mitigate this cost, and thus encourage the lockdown of the population, the government can put in place an incentive policy, in the form of a tax or subsidy. In addition, the government may also implement a testing policy in order to know more precisely the spread of the epidemic within the country, and to isolate infected individuals. In terms of technical results, we demonstrate the optimal form of the tax, indexed on the proportion of infected individuals, as well as the optimal effort of the population, namely the transmission rate chosen in response to this tax. The government's optimisation problem then boils down to solving an Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Numerical results confirm that if a tax policy is implemented, the population is encouraged to significantly reduce its interactions. If the government also adjusts its testing policy, less effort is required on the population side, individuals can interact almost as usual, and the epidemic is largely contained by the targeted isolation of positively-tested individuals.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源