论文标题

设计可运输实验

Designing Transportable Experiments

论文作者

Phan, My, Arbour, David, Dimmery, Drew, Rao, Anup B.

论文摘要

我们考虑在源人群上设计一个随机实验的问题,以估计目标人群的平均治疗效果(ATE)。我们提出了一种新颖的方法,该方法在设计实验时明确考虑了目标。在协变性的假设下,我们为目标人群的饮食设计了一个无偏见的重要性加权估计量。为了减少估计器的差异,我们根据目标人群设计了治疗组和对照组之间的协变量平衡状况(目标平衡)。我们表明,与在设计阶段不考虑目标群体的方法相比,目标平衡渐近地降低了差异。我们的实验表明,即使对于小样本量,目标平衡也会降低差异。

We consider the problem of designing a randomized experiment on a source population to estimate the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) on a target population. We propose a novel approach which explicitly considers the target when designing the experiment on the source. Under the covariate shift assumption, we design an unbiased importance-weighted estimator for the target population's ATE. To reduce the variance of our estimator, we design a covariate balance condition (Target Balance) between the treatment and control groups based on the target population. We show that Target Balance achieves a higher variance reduction asymptotically than methods that do not consider the target population during the design phase. Our experiments illustrate that Target Balance reduces the variance even for small sample sizes.

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