论文标题
深层切换自动回归分解:应用到时间序列预测
Deep Switching Auto-Regressive Factorization:Application to Time Series Forecasting
论文作者
论文摘要
我们引入了深层开关自动回归分解(DSARF),这是一个深层生成模型,用于时空数据,能够在数据中解开重复的模式并执行强大的短期和长期预测。与其他因素分析方法相似,DSARF通过依赖性权重和空间依赖因素之间的产物近似高维数据。这些权重和因素反过来依次以较低维度的潜在变量来表示,这些变量是使用随机变化推断推断出来的。 DSARF与最新技术不同,因为它以Markovian Prior管辖的深层开关矢量自动回归可能性来参数重量,该可能是Markovian Prior,它能够捕获权重之间的非线性相互依存关系以表征多模式时间动力学。这导致了灵活的层次深度生成因子分析模型,该模型可以扩展到(i)提供从过程动力学中抽象的潜在可解释状态的集合,并且(ii)在复杂的多关系环境中执行短期和长期矢量时间序列预测。我们的广泛实验包括模拟数据和来自广泛应用的真实数据,例如气候变化,天气预报,交通,传染性疾病扩散和非线性物理系统,证明了与先进方法相比,DSARF在长期和短期预测错误方面表现出了卓越的性能。
We introduce deep switching auto-regressive factorization (DSARF), a deep generative model for spatio-temporal data with the capability to unravel recurring patterns in the data and perform robust short- and long-term predictions. Similar to other factor analysis methods, DSARF approximates high dimensional data by a product between time dependent weights and spatially dependent factors. These weights and factors are in turn represented in terms of lower dimensional latent variables that are inferred using stochastic variational inference. DSARF is different from the state-of-the-art techniques in that it parameterizes the weights in terms of a deep switching vector auto-regressive likelihood governed with a Markovian prior, which is able to capture the non-linear inter-dependencies among weights to characterize multimodal temporal dynamics. This results in a flexible hierarchical deep generative factor analysis model that can be extended to (i) provide a collection of potentially interpretable states abstracted from the process dynamics, and (ii) perform short- and long-term vector time series prediction in a complex multi-relational setting. Our extensive experiments, which include simulated data and real data from a wide range of applications such as climate change, weather forecasting, traffic, infectious disease spread and nonlinear physical systems attest the superior performance of DSARF in terms of long- and short-term prediction error, when compared with the state-of-the-art methods.