论文标题
通过测试跟踪和分离物包含SARS-COV-2的挑战
The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate
论文作者
论文摘要
无需治愈，疫苗或证明对SARS-COV-2的长期免疫力，测试跟踪和分离株（TTI）策略提出了一种有希望的工具，可以容纳其扩散。然而，对于任何TTI策略，缓解措施受到前和无症状的传播，TTI-Avoiders和未发现的散布器的挑战，这些传播器强烈贡献了隐藏的感染链。在这里，我们研究了一个半分析模型，并确定了受控和不受控制的扩散之间的两个倾倒点：（1）隐藏链的行为驱动的繁殖数量变得太大，无法用TTI功能补偿，（2）新感染的数量超过了追踪能力。两者都触发了自我加速的传播。我们研究了这些临界点如何取决于挑战，例如有限的合作，缺失的联系和不完善的隔离。我们的模型结果表明，仅TTI就不足以包含SARS-COV-2的原本不受阻碍的传播，这意味着诸如社会疏远和改善卫生的互补措施仍然是必要的。
Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and asymptomatic transmission, TTI-avoiders, and undetected spreaders, who strongly contribute to hidden infection chains. Here, we studied a semi-analytical model and identified two tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled spread: (1) the behavior-driven reproduction number of the hidden chains becomes too large to be compensated by the TTI capabilities, and (2) the number of new infections exceeds the tracing capacity. Both trigger a self-accelerating spread. We investigated how these tipping points depend on challenges like limited cooperation, missing contacts, and imperfect isolation. Our model results suggest that TTI alone is insufficient to contain an otherwise unhindered spread of SARS-CoV-2, implying that complementary measures like social distancing and improved hygiene remain necessary.
