论文标题
Nazgul：伽马射线爆发定位的统计方法。通过非平稳时间序列模型进行三角剖分
nazgul: A statistical approach to gamma-ray burst localization. Triangulation via non-stationary time-series models
论文作者
论文摘要
语境。伽马射线爆发可以通过在整个太阳系中使用轨道中的γ射线检测器来通过到达时间信号三角剖分来定位。基于Binned Light曲线的互相关的经典方法忽略了时间序列数据的泊松性质，并且无法对问题的全部复杂性进行建模。 目标。为了介绍统计上适当且健壮的GRB时序/三角算法，作为对行星际网络（IPN）的原始过程的现代更新。 方法。通过随机傅立叶特征（RFF）学习了未知时间信号演化的层次贝叶斯前进模型，并通过适当的泊松可能性拟合了与GRB在天空上的位置相对应的时间差的时间序列数据。 结果。我们的新方法可以鲁estain估计通过模拟验证的GRB的位置。与经典方法相比，该方法产生的不确定性是鲁棒的，在许多情况下更精确。因此，我们有一种可以成为重力波随访的有价值工具的方法。所有软件和分析脚本都可以在此处公开提供（https://github.com/grburgess/nazgul），以进行复制。
Context. Gamma-ray bursts can be located via arrival time signal triangulation using gamma-ray detectors in orbit throughout the solar system. The classical approach based on cross-correlations of binned light curves ignores the Poisson nature of the time-series data, and is unable to model the full complexity of the problem. Aims. To present a statistically proper and robust GRB timing/triangulation algorithm as a modern update to the original procedures used for the Interplanetary Network (IPN). Methods. A hierarchical Bayesian forward model for the unknown temporal signal evolution is learned via random Fourier features (RFF) and fitted to each detector's time-series data with time-differences that correspond to GRB's position on the sky via the appropriate Poisson likelihood. Results. Our novel method can robustly estimate the position of a GRB as verified via simulations. The uncertainties generated by the method are robust and in many cases more precise compared to the classical method. Thus, we have a method that can become a valuable tool for gravitational wave follow-up. All software and analysis scripts are made publicly available here (https://github.com/grburgess/nazgul) for the purpose of replication.
