论文标题
通过测量延迟对隔室流行病学模型的安全关键控制
Safety-Critical Control of Compartmental Epidemiological Models with Measurement Delays
论文作者
论文摘要
我们引入了一种方法，以通过将流行病学模型视为控制系统，并考虑人类干预措施（例如隔离或社会疏远）作为控制输入，以确保防止传染病的安全性。我们考虑了一个代表最流行的流行病学模型的形式的广义隔室模型，我们设计了安全关键控制器，该控制器正式确保安全进化，以使某些感兴趣的人群受到规定的安全限制。此外，我们讨论了如何源自孵化期的测量延迟和测试延迟会影响安全性以及如何通过预测变量反馈来补偿延迟。我们通过综合主动干预策略，绑定了流行病学模型的感染，住院和死亡的数量，捕获COVID-19在美国的传播，证明了我们的结果。
We introduce a methodology to guarantee safety against the spread of infectious diseases by viewing epidemiological models as control systems and by considering human interventions (such as quarantining or social distancing) as control input. We consider a generalized compartmental model that represents the form of the most popular epidemiological models and we design safety-critical controllers that formally guarantee safe evolution with respect to keeping certain populations of interest under prescribed safe limits. Furthermore, we discuss how measurement delays originated from incubation period and testing delays affect safety and how delays can be compensated via predictor feedback. We demonstrate our results by synthesizing active intervention policies that bound the number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths for epidemiological models capturing the spread of COVID-19 in the USA.
