论文标题
COVID-19：鉴于流动性趋势数据和非药物干预措施的预测死亡率
COVID-19: Forecasting mortality given mobility trend data and non-pharmaceutical interventions
论文作者
论文摘要
我们开发了一种新型的混合流行病学模型和一种特定方法，用于校准，以区分和评估用于控制COVID-19的传播的其他补充非药物干预措施（NPI）（NPIS）与其他补充非药物干预措施（NPI）的影响。使用校准模型，我们估计迁移率限制贡献了47％（美国州）和47％（全球）的47％（全球）总体抑制疾病传播率的总抑制率最高为13/08/2020。我们对模型的预测能力进行了评估，进行了四个星期的预测。使用最多30/06/20的数据进行校准，美国（51个州）（51个州）和6.7％（49个国家）的累积死者预测的平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）为5.0％。使用数据最高为13/08/2020的数据，美国的MAPE降低至3.5％，全球3.8％。我们发现，全球确认案件的MAPE较高，使用最高为13/08/2020的数据，美国各州为10.2％。我们的校准模型使用最高30/06/20和0.98的数据使用最高20/08/20的数据实现了累积确认和已故病例的平均R平均值。
We develop a novel hybrid epidemiological model and a specific methodology for its calibration to distinguish and assess the impact of mobility restrictions (given by Apple's mobility trends data) from other complementary non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to control the spread of COVID-19. Using the calibrated model, we estimate that mobility restrictions contribute to 47 % (US States) and 47 % (worldwide) of the overall suppression of the disease transmission rate using data up to 13/08/2020. The forecast capacity of our model was evaluated doing four-weeks ahead predictions. Using data up to 30/06/20 for calibration, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the prediction of cumulative deceased individuals was 5.0 % for the United States (51 states) and 6.7 % worldwide (49 countries). This MAPE was reduced to 3.5% for the US and 3.8% worldwide using data up to 13/08/2020. We find that the MAPE was higher for the total confirmed cases at 11.5% worldwide and 10.2% for the US States using data up to 13/08/2020. Our calibrated model achieves an average R-Squared value for cumulative confirmed and deceased cases of 0.992 using data up to 30/06/20 and 0.98 using data up to 13/08/20.
