论文标题
COVID-19类型病毒的修改后的年龄结构化SIR模型
A modified age-structured SIR model for COVID-19 type viruses
论文作者
论文摘要
我们根据已知的社会接触模式和美国华盛顿境内的距离措施提出了一个修改的年龄结构化的SIR模型。我们发现，人口年龄分布对疾病的传播和死亡率有重大影响，并有助于特定年龄的接触和治疗措施的疗效。我们考虑在不脆弱的年龄段中放松限制的效果，比较各个不同种群参数的群体的结果。此外，我们分析了疫苗接种的缓解作用，并检查了靶向年龄分布的有效性。最后，我们探讨了我们的模型如何应用于其他州以根据不同的参数和指标来反映社会持续的政策。
We present a modified age-structured SIR model based on known patterns of social contact and distancing measures within Washington, USA. We find that population age-distribution has a significant effect on disease spread and mortality rate, and contribute to the efficacy of age-specific contact and treatment measures. We consider the effect of relaxing restrictions across less vulnerable age-brackets, comparing results across selected groups of varying population parameters. Moreover, we analyze the mitigating effects of vaccinations and examine the effectiveness of age-targeted distributions. Lastly, we explore how our model can applied to other states to reflect social-distancing policy based on different parameters and metrics.
