论文标题
建模选择对建模结果的影响：对加泰罗尼亚（西班牙）共同扩散与环境条件之间关联的时空研究（西班牙）
The impact of modelling choices on modelling outcomes: a spatio-temporal study of the association between COVID-19 spread and environmental conditions in Catalonia (Spain)
论文作者
论文摘要
研究人员在进行统计分析时做出的选择通常会对结果产生显着影响。鉴于几百个几个月内已经在此问题上已经发表了数百种矛盾的研究，这一事实已经在对环境与共同发展之间的关联的持续研究中显而易见。在本文中，分析了大流行以来，该数据集包含加泰罗尼亚（西班牙）地区注册的每日病例的数量。具体而言，评估了几种环境变量（太阳暴露，平均温度和风速）对案件数量的可能影响。因此，本文的第一个目的是展示进行分析的某种类型的统计模型的选择如何对协变量与响应变量之间推断的关联产生严重影响。其次，显示出占数据性质的时空模型的使用如何允许理解空间和时间上大流行的演变。
The choices that researchers make while conducting a statistical analysis usually have a notable impact on the results. This fact has become evident in the ongoing research of the association between the environment and the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, in light of the hundreds of contradictory studies that have already been published on this issue in just a few months. In this paper, a COVID-19 dataset containing the number of daily cases registered in the regions of Catalonia (Spain) since the start of the pandemic is analysed. Specifically, the possible effect of several environmental variables (solar exposure, mean temperature, and wind speed) on the number of cases is assessed. Thus, the first objective of the paper is to show how the choice of a certain type of statistical model to conduct the analysis can have a severe impact on the associations that are inferred between the covariates and the response variable. Secondly, it is shown how the use of spatio-temporal models accounting for the nature of the data allows understanding the evolution of the pandemic in space and time.
