论文标题
在肯尼亚，坦桑尼亚和莫桑比克的小面积估计中，HIV流行映射
HIV-prevalence mapping using Small Area Estimation in Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique at the first sub-national level
论文作者
论文摘要
艾滋病毒降低的局部估计提供了可用于针对干预措施的信息，从而提高了资源的效率。这种近距离的分配可能会导致更好的健康结果，包括控制疾病的控制以及更多人。在较小的地理水平上产生可靠的估计值可能具有挑战性，并且需要仔细考虑数据的性质，并且需要流行病学理性。在本文中，我们使用DHS数据阶段V来估计肯尼亚，坦桑尼亚和莫桑比克的第一学水平的HIV患病率。我们将数据拟合到空间随机效应固有条件自回归（ICAR）模型以平滑结果。我们还使用来自多阶段群集设计的采样规范。我们发现，肯尼亚的Nyanza（P = 14.2％）和内罗毕（P = 7.8％），Iringa（P = 16.2％）和Dar Es Salaam（p = 10.1％）在坦桑尼亚（P = 10.1％），加沙（P = 13.7％）和马普托市（P = 13.7％）和莫桑比克（Mozambique）的莫桑比克（P = 12.7％）在莫桑比克（Mozambique）是最高的。我们的结果基于统计上严格的方法，使我们能够在我们选择的非洲国家子集中获得艾滋病毒流行率的准确视觉表示。这些结果可以帮助识别和靶向高尚地区，以增加医疗服务的供应，从而减少疾病的传播并提高艾滋病毒感染者的健康质量。
Local estimates of HIV-prevalence provide information that can be used to target interventions and consequently increase the efficiency of the resources. This closer-to-optimal allocation can lead to better health outcomes, including the control of the disease spread, and for more people. Producing reliable estimates at smaller geographical levels can be challenging and careful consideration of the nature of the data and the epidemiologic rational is needed. In this paper, we use the DHS data phase V to estimate HIV prevalence at the first-subnational level in Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique. We fit the data to a spatial random effect intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) model to smooth the outcome. We also use a sampling specification from a multistage cluster design. We found that Nyanza (P=14.2%) and Nairobi (P=7.8%) in Kenya, Iringa (P=16.2%) and Dar es Salaam (P=10.1%) in Tanzania, and Gaza (P=13.7%) and Maputo City (P=12.7%) in Mozambique are the regions with the highest prevalence of HIV, within country. Our results are based on statistically rigorous methods that allowed us to obtain an accurate visual representation of the HIV prevalence in the subset of African countries we chose. These results can help in identification and targeting of high-prevalent regions to increase the supply of healthcare services to reduce the spread of the disease and increase the health quality of people living with HIV.
