论文标题
英国患者：使用实时COVID-19和消费数据评估当地锁定
The English Patient: Evaluating Local Lockdowns Using Real-Time COVID-19 & Consumption Data
论文作者
论文摘要
我们发现，英国的城市和小地区的“当地封锁”着重于限制家庭可以与多少人互动以及在哪些环境中互动的人，这有效地扭转了潮流的兴起，因为正面的covid-199案件上升。然而，通过关注家庭中的家庭混合，这些当地锁定并没有造成2020年3月第一次病毒浪潮和第一次全国锁定发生的消费量的大幅下降。我们的研究利用了一种新的实时，交易级消费数据来源，我们表明与官方统计数据高度相关。使用一种差异差异方法来评估本地锁定的有效性，该方法利用附近的地方不受本地锁定为比较组。我们的发现表明，决策者可能能够遏制不杀死当地经济体的病毒爆发。但是，当地锁定的最终有效性有望高度依赖于区域之间的协调和有效的测试系统。
We find UK 'local lockdowns' of cities and small regions, focused on limiting how many people a household can interact with and in what settings, are effective in turning the tide on rising positive COVID-19 cases. Yet, by focusing on household mixing within the home, these local lockdowns have not inflicted the large declines in consumption observed in March 2020 when the first virus wave and first national lockdown occurred. Our study harnesses a new source of real-time, transaction-level consumption data that we show to be highly correlated with official statistics. The effectiveness of local lockdowns are evaluated applying a difference-in-difference approach which exploits nearby localities not subject to local lockdowns as comparison groups. Our findings indicate that policymakers may be able to contain virus outbreaks without killing local economies. However, the ultimate effectiveness of local lockdowns is expected to be highly dependent on co-ordination between regions and an effective system of testing.
