论文标题
用不良的预测模型击败市场
Beating the market with a bad predictive model
论文作者
论文摘要
普遍的误解是,为了使作为交易者的一致利润,需要提供一些额外的信息,从而使资产价值估计比当前市场价格反映出更准确。尽管这个想法具有直观的意义,并且也通过广泛流行的凯利(Kelly)标准得到了很好的证实,但我们证明,通常可以使用完全较低的价格预测模型来实现系统性的利润。关键的想法是改变预测模型的培训目标,以明确地将它们从市场上脱颖而出,从而利用市场制造商的定价中不明显的偏见,并利用市场挑战者的固有优势而获利。我们在股票交易和体育博彩的各种领域中介绍了问题设置,以洞悉有利可图的预测模型的共同潜在属性,与标准投资组合优化策略的联系以及通常被忽视的市场接管者的优势。因此,我们证明了在共同市场分布之间的去相关目标的必需性,将概念转化为实用的机器学习设置,并证明了其使用现实世界市场数据的生存能力。
It is a common misconception that in order to make consistent profits as a trader, one needs to posses some extra information leading to an asset value estimation more accurate than that reflected by the current market price. While the idea makes intuitive sense and is also well substantiated by the widely popular Kelly criterion, we prove that it is generally possible to make systematic profits with a completely inferior price-predicting model. The key idea is to alter the training objective of the predictive models to explicitly decorrelate them from the market, enabling to exploit inconspicuous biases in market maker's pricing, and profit on the inherent advantage of the market taker. We introduce the problem setting throughout the diverse domains of stock trading and sports betting to provide insights into the common underlying properties of profitable predictive models, their connections to standard portfolio optimization strategies, and the, commonly overlooked, advantage of the market taker. Consequently, we prove desirability of the decorrelation objective across common market distributions, translate the concept into a practical machine learning setting, and demonstrate its viability with real world market data.