论文标题
赌徒从经验中学习
Gamblers Learn from Experience
论文作者
论文摘要
基于手机的体育博彩在许多非洲国家都受欢迎。评论员担心低能力赌徒不会从经验中学到，并且可能依靠债务来赌博。使用针对肯尼亚超过5万肯尼亚智能手机用户的金融交易数据，我们发现赌徒确实会从经验中学习。赌徒不太可能下注效果不佳，更有可能遵循良好的成绩下注。对正反馈和负反馈的反应相等，并且与贝叶斯更新模型一致。使用工具变量策略，我们没有发现赌博增加会导致债务增加的证据。
Mobile phone-based sports betting has exploded in popularity in many African countries. Commentators worry that low-ability gamblers will not learn from experience, and may rely on debt to gamble. Using data on financial transactions for over 50 000 Kenyan smartphone users, we find that gamblers do learn from experience. Gamblers are less likely to bet following poor results and more likely to bet following good results. The reaction to positive and negative feedback is of equal magnitude and is consistent with a model of Bayesian updating. Using an instrumental variables strategy, we find no evidence that increased gambling leads to increased debt.
