论文标题
将气管管道泄漏故障模式纳入电力气体综合能源系统的风险评估
Incorporating Gas Pipeline Leakage Failure Modes in Risk Evaluation of Electricity-Gas Integrated Energy Systems
论文作者
论文摘要
在现有的电力气体综合能源系统（EGIE）风险评估的文献中，忽略了气体泄漏在管道中的影响。本文提出了一种将气管道泄漏的故障模式纳入自我风险评估中的方法。具有多状态和多模式过渡过程的气体管道的马尔可夫状态过渡模型，并开发了该模型的双层蒙特卡洛采样方法。考虑管道泄漏故障模式，基于随机拓扑变化的网络模型。还提出了基于负载脱落的人的风险指数，包括专门用于气体泄漏风险的风险指数。具有修改的RBT和7节点气体系统的EGIES来证明所提出的方法和模型的应用。结果表明，管道泄漏故障对人口的风险产生了重大影响。忽略对人口的风险评估中的管道泄漏故障将导致系统风险过度低估，并且很可能在系统规划中产生误导性结论。
In the existing literatures for the risk evaluation of electricity-gas integrated energy system (EGIES), the impacts of gas leakage in pipelines are ignored. This paper presents a method to incorporate the failure modes of gas pipeline leakage in EGIES risk evaluation. A Markov state transition model of gas pipeline with multi-state and multi-mode transition process, and a bi-level Monte Carlo sampling method for this model are developed. A stochastic topology change based network model of EGIES considering the pipeline leakage failure modes is presented. The risk indices for EGIES based on the load shedding, including those specifically for gas leakage risks, are also proposed. An EGIES with a modified RBTS and a 7-node gas system was used to demonstrate an application of the proposed method and models. The results indicate that pipeline leakage failures have significant impacts on the risk of EGIES. Ignoring pipeline leakage failures in the risk evaluation of EGIES will result in an overly underestimation of system risk and most likely a misleading conclusion in system planning.
