论文标题

亚利桑那州立大学学生中个人的生态因素对饮酒动态的影响:调查基于数据驱动的代理模型的应用

The Impact of Individual's Ecological Factors on the Dynamics of Alcohol Drinking among Arizona State University Students: An Application of the Survey Data-driven Agent-based Model

论文作者

Azizi, Asma, Mubayi, Anamika, Mubayi, Anuj

论文摘要

大学生是对高风险饮酒行为最脆弱的人群之一,可能会导致他们造成伤害或性侵犯等后果。可能影响大学生对饮酒行为决定的重要因素是在大学环境的某些情况下进行社交。本研究旨在确定和更好地理解生态条件,推动大学生中饮酒的动态。 为此,进行了一项试点研究,以评估学生对亚利桑那州立大学(ASU)校园各个环境的运动模式,并使用其结果来开发基于代理的模拟模型,旨在研究环境因素在ASU学生的开发和维持饮酒行为方面的作用。类似于近似反应扩散模型的拟议模型解释了通过SIR型模型在这些情况下(即反应)在各种情况(即扩散)和饮酒影响的各种情况下的运动。在ASU Tempe校园中访问最多的四个环境中,图书馆,纪念联盟,健身中心和宿舍中,访问概率最高的背景是纪念联盟,是最有影响力和最敏感的环境(酒精相关影响的$ 16 $倍于其他环境的影响左右)。 我们的发现凸显了社会化在当地环境中的关键作用在学生饮酒的动态以及大学饮酒率的长期预测方面的关键作用。

College-aged students are one of the most vulnerable populations to high-risk alcohol drinking behaviors that could cause them consequences such as injury or sexual assault. An important factor that may influence college students' decision on alcohol drinking behavior is socializing at certain contexts across university environment. The present study aims to identify and better understand ecological conditions driving the dynamics of distribution of alcohol use among college-aged students. To this end, a pilot study is conducted to evaluate students' movement patterns to different contexts across the Arizona State University (ASU) campus, and to use its results to develop an agent-based simulation model designed for examining the role of environmental factors on development and maintenance of alcohol drinking behavior by a representative sample of ASU students. The proposed model that resembles an approximate reaction-diffusion model accounts for movement of agents to various contexts (i.e. diffusion) and alcohol drinking influences within those contexts (i.e., reaction) via a SIR-type model. Of the four most visited contexts at ASU Tempe campus -- Library, Memorial Union, Fitness Center, and Dorm -- the context with the highest visiting probability, Memorial Union, is the most influential and most sensitive context (around $16$ times higher impact of alcohol related influences than the other contexts) on spreading alcohol drinking behavior. Our findings highlight the crucial role of socialization at local environments on the dynamics of students' alcohol use as well as on the long-term prediction of the college drinking prevalence.

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