论文标题
地球的长期气候变化和冰河时代：米兰科维奇周期的衍生
The Earths long-term climate changes and ice ages: a derivation of Milankovitch cycles from first principles
论文作者
论文摘要
相对于其轨道平面，地球轴倾斜的长期变化对长期气候变化具有重要意义，因为它们控制了北极和南极圆的大小。这些Milankovitch周期通常是通过Newtons运动方程的数值整合来计算的，并且在结果上存在一些争议，因为它们对涉及的非常长的计算机模拟对数值漂移敏感。在本文中，循环是根据第一原理计算的，而无需依赖计算机模拟。问题是行星进动的一种，可以通过研究旋转顶部的进动的方法来解决。结果表明，米兰科维奇周期的主要组成部分具有41，000年的时间，这是由于地球系统的进攻模式之一。该系统的另一种模式产生了29,500年的成分，而期限为54,000年的第三部分是由于木星和土星的轨道的影响而产生的。 这些结果与文献中的几个数值模拟密切一致，并强烈建议文献中的其他不同结果是不正确的。
Long-term changes in the tilt of the Earths axis, relative to the plane of its orbit, are of great significance to long-term climate change, because they control the size of the arctic and antarctic circles. These Milankovitch cycles have generally been calculated by numerical integration of Newtons equations of motion, and there is some controversy over the results because they are sensitive to numerical drift over the very long computer simulations involved. In this paper the cycles are calculated from first principles, without any reliance on computer simulation. The problem is one of planetary precession, and is solvable by the methods used to study the precession of a spinning top. It is shown that the main component of Milankovitch cycles has a period of 41,000 years and is due to one of the modes of precession of the Earth-Venus system. The other mode of this system produces a component of period 29,500 years, and a third component of period 54,000 years results from the influence of the precession of the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn. These results agree closely with several of the numerical simulations in the literature, and strongly suggest that other different results in the literature are incorrect.
