论文标题
科罗拉多州的科罗拉多州:科罗拉多州的国会重新划分和竞争公平标准
Colorado in Context: Congressional Redistricting and Competing Fairness Criteria in Colorado
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中,我们采用集合分析的技术来了解科罗拉多州国会代表的政治基准。我们为合理的重新划分计划生成了大量随机样本,并使用2018年全州选举的回报来确定每个地区的党派平衡,并在这种情况下分析2011/2012年颁布的地区。科罗拉多州最近采用了一个新的框架来重新分配,建立了一个独立的委员会来划定地区边界,禁止党派偏见和任职考虑,要求将政治边界(例如县)保持尽可能多,并要求地图制造商最大程度地提高竞争地区的数量。我们研究了党派成果,分裂的县数量和计划中竞争地区的数量之间的关系。本文还具有两种新的方法论,这是一个更严格的统计框架,用于理解必要的样本量,以及一种加权绘制方法,用于生成随机计划,该计划将大约很少的县划分为可接受的人绘图地图。
In this paper, we apply techniques of ensemble analysis to understand the political baseline for Congressional representation in Colorado. We generate a large random sample of reasonable redistricting plans and determine the partisan balance of each district using returns from state-wide elections in 2018, and analyze the 2011/2012 enacted districts in this context. Colorado recently adopted a new framework for redistricting, creating an independent commission to draw district boundaries, prohibiting partisan bias and incumbency considerations, requiring that political boundaries (such as counties) be preserved as much as possible, and also requiring that mapmakers maximize the number of competitive districts. We investigate the relationships between partisan outcomes, number of counties which are split, and number of competitive districts in a plan. This paper also features two novel improvements in methodology--a more rigorous statistical framework for understanding necessary sample size, and a weighted-graph method for generating random plans which split approximately as few counties as acceptable human-drawn maps.