论文标题
COVID-19的分析塞内加尔进化：卫生保健能力的影响
Analysis of COVID-19 evolution in Senegal: impact of health care capacity
论文作者
论文摘要
我们考虑了一个隔间模型，我们从中结合了具有后勤增长的时间依赖的医疗保健能力。这使我们可以考虑到塞内加尔当局的回应，以预期受感染案件的越来越多。我们强调了预期和时间安排的重要性，以避免巨大的影响，这可能会对患者的治疗以及医疗保健工作者的福祉产生重大影响。根据医疗保健能力和新住院个人的通量，以避免可能的压倒性。我们还使用机器学习方法将累计数量的案件投影起来，从2020年3月2日至2020年12月1日。
We consider a compartmental model from which we incorporate a time-dependent health care capacity having a logistic growth. This allows us to take into account the Senegalese authorities response in anticipating the growing number of infected cases. We highlight the importance of anticipation and timing to avoid overwhelming that could impact considerably the treatment of patients and the well-being of health care workers. A condition, depending on the health care capacity and the flux of new hospitalized individuals, to avoid possible overwhelming is provided. We also use machine learning approach to project forward the cumulative number of cases from March 02, 2020, until 1st December, 2020.
