论文标题
依赖路径的流行过程：隔离的两个阶段比一个阶段要好吗？
Path-dependent course of epidemic: are two phases of quarantine better than one?
论文作者
论文摘要
从纯粹的流行病学的角度来看，在共同-19流行期间，严格隔离的重要性也广泛争论。反对严格锁定措施的一个论点是，一旦严格的隔离区解除了，流行病就会恢复，因此在整个流行病中，受感染者的累积数量将保持不变。我们考虑了网络上的SIR模型，并遵循疾病动力学，通过更改节点度分布来建模隔离的阶段。我们表明，该系统根据历史到达不同的稳态：尽管最终的节点分布分布相同，但流行病的结果仍依赖于路径依赖性。结果表明，除非所有个体在末端（相同度）具有相同数量的连接，否则到达最终节点程度分布的两相途径（严格的相位，然后是相同的软相）始终优于一个相（相同的软相）；在后一种情况下，感染的总数确实是与历史无关的。该建模还表明，提起隔离的最佳步骤包括按学位顺序释放节点（最高）。
The importance of a strict quarantine has been widely debated during the COVID-19 epidemic even from the purely epidemiological point of view. One argument against strict lockdown measures is that once the strict quarantine is lifted, the epidemic comes back, and so the cumulative number of infected individuals during the entire epidemic will stay the same. We consider an SIR model on a network and follow the disease dynamics, modeling the phases of quarantine by changing the node degree distribution. We show that the system reaches different steady states based on the history: the outcome of the epidemic is path-dependent despite the same final node degree distribution. The results indicate that two-phase route to the final node degree distribution (a strict phase followed by a soft phase) are always better than one phase (the same soft one) unless all the individuals have the same number of connections at the end (the same degree); in the latter case, the overall number of infected is indeed history-independent. The modeling also suggests that the optimal procedure of lifting the quarantine consists of releasing nodes in the order of their degree - highest first.
