论文标题
具有疾病控制模型的复发神经网络的高维贝叶斯优化算法在时间序列中
High-dimensional Bayesian Optimization Algorithm with Recurrent Neural Network for Disease Control Models in Time Series
论文作者
论文摘要
贝叶斯优化算法已成为非线性全球优化问题和许多机器学习应用的一种有希望的方法。在过去的几年中,提出了改进和增强功能,它们在解决复杂的动态问题,即目标函数的计算上昂贵的评估方程的系统中显示了一些令人鼓舞的结果。此外,贝叶斯优化算法的直接实现仅用于10-20维的优化问题。本文提出的研究提出了一种新的高维贝叶斯优化算法,结合了复发性神经网络,该算法有望预测具有高维或时间序列决策模型的全球优化问题的最佳解决方案。提出的RNN-BO算法可以解决较低维空间中的最佳控制问题,然后使用复发性神经网络从历史数据中学习,以了解历史最佳解决方案数据并预测任何新的初始系统价值设置的最佳控制策略。此外,准确,快速提供最佳控制策略对于有效有效地控制流行病的同时最小化相关的财务成本至关重要。因此,为了验证所提出的算法的有效性,在确定性SEIR流行模型和随机SIS最佳控制模型上进行了计算实验。最后,我们还讨论了不同数量的RNN层和培训时期对解决方案质量和相关计算工作之间的权衡的影响。
Bayesian Optimization algorithm has become a promising approach for nonlinear global optimization problems and many machine learning applications. Over the past few years, improvements and enhancements have been brought forward and they have shown some promising results in solving the complex dynamic problems, systems of ordinary differential equations where the objective functions are computationally expensive to evaluate. Besides, the straightforward implementation of the Bayesian Optimization algorithm performs well merely for optimization problems with 10-20 dimensions. The study presented in this paper proposes a new high dimensional Bayesian Optimization algorithm combining Recurrent neural networks, which is expected to predict the optimal solution for the global optimization problems with high dimensional or time series decision models. The proposed RNN-BO algorithm can solve the optimal control problems in the lower dimension space and then learn from the historical data using the recurrent neural network to learn the historical optimal solution data and predict the optimal control strategy for any new initial system value setting. In addition, accurately and quickly providing the optimal control strategy is essential to effectively and efficiently control the epidemic spread while minimizing the associated financial costs. Therefore, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, computational experiments are carried out on a deterministic SEIR epidemic model and a stochastic SIS optimal control model. Finally, we also discuss the impacts of different numbers of the RNN layers and training epochs on the trade-off between solution quality and related computational efforts.