论文标题
具有可区分代理的复发迁移率模式的传播扩散过程
Contagion-diffusion processes with recurrent mobility patterns of distinguishable agents
论文作者
论文摘要
对群体中的传染扩散过程的分析是研究流动性如何影响传染性疾病传播的强大理论工具。然而，许多种群的方法都使用无法区分的药物来减轻分析困难。在这里，我们解决了复发性流动模式的影响以及可区分代理的空间分布对大型城市地区流行病的展开的影响。我们将代理商的可观性质纳入了有关他们的住所和他们通常的目的地。提出的模型既允许快速计算流行轨迹的时空模式。流行阈值的分析计算。该阈值被发现是封装住宅分布的混合矩阵的光谱半径，以及特定的通勤模式。我们证明，简化难以区分的个体高估了流行阈值的价值。
The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents to alleviate analytical difficulties. Here, we address the impact that recurrent mobility patterns, and the spatial distribution of distinguishable agents, have on the unfolding of epidemics in large urban areas. We incorporate the distinguishable nature of agents regarding both, their residence, and their usual destination. The proposed model allows both a fast computation of the spatio-temporal pattern of the epidemic trajectory and. the analytical calculation of the epidemic threshold. This threshold is found as the spectral radius of a mixing matrix encapsulating the residential distribution, and the specific commuting patterns of agents. We prove that the simplification of indistinguishable individuals overestimates the value of the epidemic threshold.
