论文标题
regnl:使用夜灯在破坏性事件中快速预测GDP
ReGNL: Rapid Prediction of GDP during Disruptive Events using Nightlights
论文作者
论文摘要
政策制定者通常会根据参数(例如GDP,失业率,工业产出等)做出决定。获取甚至估算此类信息的主要方法是资源密集且耗时。为了及时且信息良好的决策,必须能够为这些参数提出代理,这些参数可以快速有效地采样,尤其是在颠覆性事件中,例如Covid-19-19的大流行。最近,为此目的使用遥感数据已有很多重点。与调查相比,该数据已变得便宜,并且可以实时可用。在这项工作中,我们提出了区域GDP夜灯(REGNL),这是一种基于神经网络的模型,该模型在历史夜灯和GDP数据的自定义数据集以及一个地方的地理坐标上进行了培训,并估计了该位置的GDP,鉴于其他参数。以美国50个州为例,我们发现Regnl是破坏性的,不合时宜的,并且能够预测正常年份的GDP(2019年),并且有多年的破坏性事件(2020年)。 Regnl在大流行期间,即使在大流行期间,均超过了时间的时间arima方法。根据我们的发现,我们为构建基础架构收集和提供颗粒状数据的理由,尤其是在资源贫乏的地理学中,因此可以在颠覆性事件中利用这些数据来利用这些数据。
Policy makers often make decisions based on parameters such as GDP, unemployment rate, industrial output, etc. The primary methods to obtain or even estimate such information are resource intensive and time consuming. In order to make timely and well-informed decisions, it is imperative to be able to come up with proxies for these parameters which can be sampled quickly and efficiently, especially during disruptive events, like the COVID-19 pandemic. Recently, there has been a lot of focus on using remote sensing data for this purpose. The data has become cheaper to collect compared to surveys, and can be available in real time. In this work, we present Regional GDP NightLight (ReGNL), a neural network based model which is trained on a custom dataset of historical nightlights and GDP data along with the geographical coordinates of a place, and estimates the GDP of the place, given the other parameters. Taking the case of 50 US states, we find that ReGNL is disruption-agnostic and is able to predict the GDP for both normal years (2019) and for years with a disruptive event (2020). ReGNL outperforms timeseries ARIMA methods for prediction, even during the pandemic. Following from our findings, we make a case for building infrastructures to collect and make available granular data, especially in resource-poor geographies, so that these can be leveraged for policy making during disruptive events.