论文标题
校准CAMS欧洲多模型空气质量预测,用于区域空气污染监测
Calibrating the CAMS European multi-model air quality forecasts for regional air pollution monitoring
论文作者
论文摘要
The CAMS air quality multi-model forecasts have been assessed and calibrated for PM10, PM2.5, O3, NO2, and CO against observations collected by the Regional Monitoring Network of the Liguria region (northwestern Italy) in the years 2019 and 2020. The calibration strategy used in the present work has its roots in the well-established Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) through which a raw ensemble forecast can be accurately通过同时校正偏见和分散误差,转化为预测概率密度函数。该策略还提供了对模型不确定性的校准预测。通过我们的分析,在校准策略中摄入污染物实时观察的关键作用显然显然出现在较短的审查预测小时中。我们的动态校准策略相对于未考虑实时数据的类似性而言是优越的。我们确定的最佳校准策略使CAMS多模型预测系统比以较高空间分辨率运行的其他原始空气质量模型更可靠,从而利用库存排放利用了更详细的信息。我们期望我们的研究对识别和建立可靠的经济空气污染预警系统的积极影响。
The CAMS air quality multi-model forecasts have been assessed and calibrated for PM10, PM2.5, O3, NO2, and CO against observations collected by the Regional Monitoring Network of the Liguria region (northwestern Italy) in the years 2019 and 2020. The calibration strategy used in the present work has its roots in the well-established Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) through which a raw ensemble forecast can be accurately transformed into a predictive probability density function, with a simultaneous correction of biases and dispersion errors. The strategy also provides a calibrated forecast of model uncertainties. As a result of our analysis, the key role of pollutant real-time observations to be ingested in the calibration strategy clearly emerge especially in the shorter look-ahead forecast hours. Our dynamic calibration strategy turns out to be superior with respect to its analogous where real-time data are not taken into account. The best calibration strategy we have identified makes the CAMS multi-model forecast system more reliable than other raw air quality models running at higher spatial resolution which exploit more detailed information from inventory emission. We expect positive impacts of our research for identifying and set up reliable and economic air pollution early warning systems.