论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Estimation of the Parameters of the Spiral Pattern in the Galaxy Based on a Sample of Classical Cepheids
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
We consider a sample of Galactic classical Cepheids with highly accurate estimates of their distances taken from Skowron et al., where they were determined based on the period-luminosity relation. We have refined the geometric characteristics of two spiral arm segments-the Carina-Sagittarius and Outer ones. For this purpose, we have selected 269 Cepheids belonging to the Carina-Sagittarius arm with ages in the range 80-120 Myr. From them we have estimated the pitch angle of the spiral pattern $i=-11.9\pm0.2^\circ$ and the position of this arm $a_0=7.32\pm0.05$ kpc for the adopted $R_0=8.1\pm0.1$ kpc. In the Outer arm we have selected 343 Cepheids with ages in the range 120-300 Myr. From them we have found $i=-11.5\pm0.5^\circ$ and $a_0=12.89\pm0.06$ kpc. Adhering to the model of a grand-design spiral pattern in the Galaxy with one pitch angle for all arms, we can conclude that this angle is close to $-12^\circ$.
