论文标题

物理,主观和类似的概率

Physical, subjective and analogical probability

论文作者

Bowater, Russell J.

论文摘要

本文的目的是表明,最好通过将此概念分为两​​种不同类型的概率,即物理概率和类比概率来理解概率的概念。宽松地说,物理概率是一种适用于实验结果的概率,该实验的结果被认为是基于物理对称性的同样可能。可以说,物理概率在某种意义上是“客观”,并且具有概率概念的所有标准特性。另一方面,通过在感兴趣事件的不确定性与围绕具有物理概率的事件的不确定性之间进行类比来定义类似的概率。类似的概率无疑是主观的概率,并且没有义务具有所有标准的数学特性,例如物理概率,例如他们可能没有添加性的属性或遵守条件概率的标准定义。然而,类似概率具有额外的特性,这些特性并非物理概率所拥有的,这有助于其直接启发,一般推导,比较和理由。更具体地说,这些属性有助于将类似的概率应用于现实世界中的问题,而实际概率无法充分解决,例如基于观察到的数据,对假设的概率推论。仔细定义了引入的概念,并在适当的情况下提出了这些概念的应用示例,以稍加清晰。

The aim of this paper is to show that the concept of probability is best understood by dividing this concept into two different types of probability, namely physical probability and analogical probability. Loosely speaking, a physical probability is a probability that applies to the outcomes of an experiment that have been judged as being equally likely on the basis of physical symmetry. Physical probabilities are arguably in some sense 'objective' and possess all the standard properties of the concept of probability. On the other hand, an analogical probability is defined by making an analogy between the uncertainty surrounding an event of interest and the uncertainty surrounding an event that has a physical probability. Analogical probabilities are undeniably subjective probabilities and are not obliged to have all the standard mathematical properties possessed by physical probabilities, e.g. they may not have the property of additivity or obey the standard definition of conditional probability. Nevertheless, analogical probabilities have extra properties, which are not possessed by physical probabilities, that assist in their direct elicitation, general derivation, comparison and justification. More specifically, these properties facilitate the application of analogical probability to real-world problems that can not be adequately resolved by using only physical probability, e.g. probabilistic inference about hypotheses on the basis of observed data. Careful definitions are given of the concepts that are introduced and, where appropriate, examples of the application of these concepts are presented for additional clarity.

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