论文标题
重建COVID-19传输网络的框架，以告知基于中心性的控制措施
A Framework for Reconstructing COVID-19 Transmission Network to Inform Betweenness Centrality-Based Control Measures
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们提出了一个最佳控制措施的一般框架，该框架遵循监视单位在一个国家一级收集的COVID-19感染计数的演变。我们采用了一种自回旋模型，该模型允许将平均感染数量分解为描述的三个组成部分：局部内部感染，局部性感染以及来自其他来源（例如旅行者）从国外到达一个国家的感染。我们将局部性术语确定为一个时间不断发展的网络，当它推动疾病的动态时，我们将重点放在其特性上。然后，使用网络分析的工具来洞悉其拓扑。在此基础上，尤其是在确定网络节点的中心地位上，设计了一种干预和疾病控制策略。
In this paper, we propose a general framework for optimal control measures, which follows the evolution of COVID-19 infection counts collected by Surveillance Units on a country level. We employ an autoregressive model that allows to decompose the mean number of infections into three components that describe: intra-locality infections, inter-locality infections, and infections from other sources such as travelers arriving to a country from abroad. We identify the inter-locality term as a time-evolving network and when it drives the dynamics of the disease we focus on its properties. Tools from network analysis are then employed to get insight into its topology. Building on this, and particularly on the centrality of the nodes of the identified network, a strategy for intervention and disease control is devised.
