论文标题
建模跨境意识形态竞争的动力学
Modelling the dynamics of cross-border ideological competition
论文作者
论文摘要
在这个世界越来越全球化的世界中，个人越来越多地接触到国家边界的新闻和意见。这一新闻和观点通常集中在政党，派系或利益集团等意识形态同质性的集群中。但是，对跨境信息的接触如何影响思想在国家和意识形态边界之间的扩散？在这里，我们通过使用流行病学方法为两种意识形态的跨境传播开发了一个非线性数学模型。每个国家的人口被认为是一种恒定而同质的混合。我们通过数值求解微分方程的系统，并显示少数族裔意识形态影响的小变化如何触发全球政治平衡的转变。
Individuals are increasingly exposed to news and opinion from beyond national borders in a world that is becoming more and more globalised. This news and opinion is often concentrated in clusters of ideological homophily such as political parties, factions or interest groups. But how does exposure to cross-border information affect the diffusion of ideas across national and ideological borders? Here we develop a non-linear mathematical model for the cross-border spread of two ideologies by using an epidemiological approach. The populations of each country are assumed to be a constant and homogeneously mixed. We solve the system of differential equations numerically and show how small changes in the influence of a minority ideology can trigger shifts in the global political equilibrium.
