论文标题
预测市场的价格解释性:融合分析
Price Interpretability of Prediction Markets: A Convergence Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
预测市场以预测准确性而闻名。这项研究系统地探讨了预测市场的基本属性,解决了有关其信息汇总过程的问题以及导致其出色效力的因素。我们提出了一种新型的基于多元实用程序(MU)的机制,该机制统一了几种现有的自动化营销计划。使用这种机制,我们为由具有异质信念的风险交易者组成的市场建立了融合结果,并反复与做市商互动。我们证明,由此产生的限制财富分配与所有市场参与者公用事业定义的帕累托有效边界保持一致。在此结果的帮助下,我们为不同市场模型的限制价格建立了分析和数值结果。具体而言,我们表明,限制价格会融合基于指数公用事业市场的代理商信念的几何平均值。在基于风险的市场的市场中,我们建立了一系列风险措施,以满足收敛标准,并证明价格可以融合到由代理信念的加权能力平均值所代表的独特水平。在具有恒定的相对风险规避(CRRA)公用事业的更广泛的市场中,我们揭示了限制价格的特征是封装代理信念,风险参数和财富的方程式。尽管交易者的交易序列对限制价格产生了潜在的影响,但我们为贸易商人口庞大的市场建立了价格不变性结果。使用此结果,我们为限制价格提出了一个有效的近似方案。
Prediction markets are long known for prediction accuracy. This study systematically explores the fundamental properties of prediction markets, addressing questions about their information aggregation process and the factors contributing to their remarkable efficacy. We propose a novel multivariate utility (MU) based mechanism that unifies several existing automated market-making schemes. Using this mechanism, we establish the convergence results for markets comprised of risk-averse traders who have heterogeneous beliefs and repeatedly interact with the market maker. We demonstrate that the resulting limiting wealth distribution aligns with the Pareto efficient frontier defined by the utilities of all market participants. With the help of this result, we establish analytical and numerical results for the limiting price in different market models. Specifically, we show that the limiting price converges to the geometric mean of agent beliefs in exponential utility-based markets. In risk-measure-based markets, we construct a family of risk measures that satisfy the convergence criteria and prove that the price can converge to a unique level represented by the weighted power mean of agent beliefs. In broader markets with Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utilities, we reveal that the limiting price can be characterized by systems of equations that encapsulate agent beliefs, risk parameters, and wealth. Despite the potential impact of traders' trading sequences on the limiting price, we establish a price invariance result for markets with a large trader population. Using this result, we propose an efficient approximation scheme for the limiting price.