论文标题
在北极和南极海冰范围的年度和半年度组成部分中
On the annual and semi-annual components of variations in extent of Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice
论文作者
论文摘要
北半球（NHSI）和南半球（SHSI）Sea-Ice范围的时间序列已提交给单数光谱分析（SSA）。通过Laplace对Liouville-Euler系统的配方进行分析。如先前的工作中已经显示的那样，时间序列中观察到的趋势是准线性的，NHSI的减少和SHSI的增加。南极年度变化的幅度是北极中的两倍，它们处于相对相反的状态。半年度组件在正交中。 NHSI和SHSI的前三个组件在1、1/2和1/3年分别占信号方差的95％以上。我们补充了对POL位置（PM = M1，M2）和一天长度（LOD）变化的先前分析。 LOD的SSA由与Sea-Ice相同的前3个组件主导，而PM的SSA仅包含1年和Chandler组件。 NHSI的1年成分与LOD和与M1相对的相反。 SHSI的1年成分的反向保持。我们注意到，半年度组件出现在M1中的LOD中。 NHSI和SHSI的年度和半年度组成部分比1978年以来观察到的趋势要大得多，这使我们测试是否不应优先考虑一阶地球物理或天文强迫，而不是通常认为是趋势的强迫因素的机制。缺乏最大强制组件的调节表明是一种替代机制。在拉普拉斯（Laplace）的范式中，月亮，太阳和行星施加的扭矩扮演着许多地球物理现象的强迫来源。这些力导致地球旋转轴的倾斜度发生了变化，使地球质量在运动中并导致热耗散。它是旋转轴倾斜的变化，导致海冰融化和重新冻结的年度大部分。
The time series of northern hemisphere (NHSI) and southern hemisphere (SHSI) sea-ice extent are submitted to singular spectral analysis (SSA). The components are analyzed with Laplace's formulation of the Liouville-Euler system. As already shown in a previous work, the trends observed in the time series are quasi linear, decreasing for NHSI and increasing for SHSI. The amplitude of annual variations in the Antarctic is double that in the Arctic, they are in phase opposition, modulated. The semi-annual components are in quadrature. The first 3 components of both NHSI and SHSI at 1, 1/2 and 1/3 yr account for more than 95% of the signal variance. We complement previous analyses of variations in pole position (PM = m1, m2) and length of day (lod). Whereas SSA of lod is dominated by the same first 3 components as sea-ice, SSA of PM contains only the 1 yr and the Chandler components. The 1 yr component of NHSI is in phase with that of lod and in phase opposition with m1. The reverse holds for the 1 yr component of SHSI. We note that the semi-annual component appears in lod not in m1. The annual and semi-annual components of NHSI and SHSI are much larger than the trends observed since 1978, that leads us to test whether a first order geophysical or astronomical forcing should not be preferred to the mechanisms generally suggested as a forcing factor of the trends. The lack of modulation of the largest forced component suggests an alternate mechanism. In Laplace's paradigm, the torques exerted by the Moon, Sun and planets play the leading role as the source of forcing of many geophysical phenomena. These forces lead to changes in the inclination of the Earth's rotation axis, setting Earth masses in motion and resulting in thermal dissipation. It is variations in inclination of the rotation axis that lead to the large annual components of melting and re-freezing of sea-ice.
