论文标题

深度学习代理的概率模型 - 错误评估:用于钻孔电磁测量的实时反转的应用

Probabilistic model-error assessment of deep learning proxies: an application to real-time inversion of borehole electromagnetic measurements

论文作者

Rammay, Muzammil Hussain, Alyaev, Sergey, Elsheikh, Ahmed H

论文摘要

快速传感技术的出现允许在模型参数不确定的许多应用程序中进行实时模型更新。贝叶斯算法,例如合奏smoothers,为不确定性提供了实时的概率反转。但是,他们依赖于对计算模型的重复评估,而基于深层的神经网络(DNN)代理对于解决此计算瓶颈很有用。本文研究了深度学习模型的近似性质和相关模型误差的效果,在深深的钻孔电磁(EM)测量中,这对于GeoSteering至关重要。使用深层神经网络(DNN)作为正向模型,我们可以在几秒钟内执行数千次模型评估,这对于实时量化不确定性和非唯一性非常有用。尽管通常为确保DNN模型的准确性做出了重大努力,但众所周知,它们在训练数据未涵盖的地区中包含未知的模型错误。当在EM测量的反转过程中使用DNN时,模型错误的效果可能表现为估计输入参数的偏见,因此,可能导致低质量的GeoSteering决策。我们提出了数值结果,强调了与EM测量值相关的挑战,同时忽略了模型误差。我们进一步证明了最近提出的柔性迭代集合的实用性,可以通过捕获未知模型误差来降低模型偏差的效果,从而提高了GeoSteering操作的估计地下属性的质量。此外,我们描述了一种识别反转多模式的程序,并提出了实时减轻它的可能解决方案。

The advent of fast sensing technologies allows for real-time model updates in many applications where the model parameters are uncertain. Bayesian algorithms, such as ensemble smoothers, offer a real-time probabilistic inversion accounting for uncertainties. However, they rely on the repeated evaluation of the computational models, and deep neural network (DNN) based proxies can be useful to address this computational bottleneck. This paper studies the effects of the approximate nature of the deep learned models and associated model errors during the inversion of extra-deep borehole electromagnetic (EM) measurements, which are critical for geosteering. Using a deep neural network (DNN) as a forward model allows us to perform thousands of model evaluations within seconds, which is very useful for quantifying uncertainties and non-uniqueness in real-time. While significant efforts are usually made to ensure the accuracy of the DNN models, it is known that they contain unknown model errors in the regions not covered by the training data. When DNNs are utilized during inversion of EM measurements, the effects of the model errors could manifest themselves as a bias in the estimated input parameters and, consequently, might result in a low-quality geosteering decision. We present numerical results highlighting the challenges associated with the inversion of EM measurements while neglecting model error. We further demonstrate the utility of a recently proposed flexible iterative ensemble smoother in reducing the effect of model bias by capturing the unknown model errors, thus improving the quality of the estimated subsurface properties for geosteering operation. Moreover, we describe a procedure for identifying inversion multimodality and propose possible solutions to alleviate it in real-time.

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