论文标题

分子进化的不可预测的可重复性

Unpredictable repeatability in molecular evolution

论文作者

Das, Suman G, Krug, Joachim

论文摘要

基因型水平的平行演化程度与突变的有益适应性效应(DBFE)的分布进行了定量关联。基于轻尾分布(即具有有限矩的分布)的标准视图是,重复种群平行演变的概率与可用突变的数量成反比,而且DBFE足以确定何时可用突变的数量较大。在这里,我们表明,当DBFE被重尾时,正如最近的几个实验中发现的那样,这些期望就会违反。平行演化的概率在突变的数量中逐渐衰减,甚至与之无关,这意味着进化的重复性更高。同时,并行进化的概率是非自由的,也就是说,即使涉及大量突变,它也不会收敛到其平均值。出现这种行为是因为进化过程仅由少数高重量突变主导。因此,概率在具有相同DBFE的系统中差异很大。与标准视图相反,DBFE不再足以确定并行进化的程度,从而降低了可预测的程度。我们从理论上和通过分析抗生素耐药性进化的经验数据来说明这些思想。

The extent of parallel evolution at the genotypic level is quantitatively linked to the distribution of beneficial fitness effects (DBFE) of mutations. The standard view, based on light-tailed distributions (i.e. distributions with finite moments), is that the probability of parallel evolution in duplicate populations is inversely proportional to the number of available mutations, and moreover that the DBFE is sufficient to determine the probability when the number of available mutations is large. Here we show that when the DBFE is heavy-tailed, as found in several recent experiments, these expectations are defied. The probability of parallel evolution decays anomalously slowly in the number of mutations or even becomes independent of it, implying higher repeatability of evolution. At the same time, the probability of parallel evolution is non-self-averaging, that is, it does not converge to its mean value even when a large number of mutations are involved. This behavior arises because the evolutionary process is dominated by only a few mutations of high weight. Consequently, the probability varies widely across systems with the same DBFE. Contrary to the standard view, the DBFE is no longer sufficient to determine the extent of parallel evolution, making it much less predictable. We illustrate these ideas theoretically and through analysis of empirical data on antibiotic resistance evolution.

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