论文标题
什么时候干预？在不确定性和资源限制下的规定过程监视
When to intervene? Prescriptive Process Monitoring Under Uncertainty and Resource Constraints
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具，其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而，其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间，然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用，该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明，使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器，即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程，也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后，我们表明，当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声，甚至控制方程变得不准确时，我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测，从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Prescriptive process monitoring approaches leverage historical data to prescribe runtime interventions that will likely prevent negative case outcomes or improve a process's performance. A centerpiece of a prescriptive process monitoring method is its intervention policy: a decision function determining if and when to trigger an intervention on an ongoing case. Previous proposals in this field rely on intervention policies that consider only the current state of a given case. These approaches do not consider the tradeoff between triggering an intervention in the current state, given the level of uncertainty of the underlying predictive models, versus delaying the intervention to a later state. Moreover, they assume that a resource is always available to perform an intervention (infinite capacity). This paper addresses these gaps by introducing a prescriptive process monitoring method that filters and ranks ongoing cases based on prediction scores, prediction uncertainty, and causal effect of the intervention, and triggers interventions to maximize a gain function, considering the available resources. The proposal is evaluated using a real-life event log. The results show that the proposed method outperforms existing baselines regarding total gain.
