论文标题
根据Arima预测未来30年的水位
Predict the water level of the Lake Mead for the next 30 years based on ARIMA
论文作者
论文摘要
在这项研究中，为米德湖的干旱问题开发了数学模型。首先，通过最小二乘法进行了米德湖高度的多项式拟合，并通过最小二乘法进行，而米德湖的体积近似于高度乘积的数值整合以及梯形规则求解的面积。在所有四个不同的位置，配件的准确性达到了96％以上。其次，通过上述方法将最小和最大水位转化为体积数量，并通过顺序聚类将米德湖的历史数据分为三类水资源。根据这些数据，最近的干旱期是2008年的最佳切点，并且一直持续到现在。最后，使用Arima（2,2,2）和Arima（3,2,2）构建了两个预测模型，分别研究了2008年至2020年和2005年至2005年至2020年的水位数据，以预测2022年至2050年湖的水位数据，并比较和分析和分析和分析和分析。
In this study, a mathematical model is developed for the drought problem of Lake Mead. First, a polynomial fitting of the elevation of Lake Mead to the area of the lake is done by the least-squares method, and the volume of Lake Mead is approximated by the numerical integration of the product of the height and the area solved by the trapezoidal rule. The accuracy of the fitting reached more than 96%at all four different locations. Second, the minimum and maximum water levels were transformed into volume numbers by the above method, and the historical data of Lake Mead were classified into three classes of water resources by sequential clustering. According to these data, the optimal cut point of the most recent drought period was 2008 and has continued until now. Finally, two prediction models were constructed using ARIMA(2,2,2) and ARIMA(3,2,2) to study the water level data from 2008 to 2020 and 2005 to 2020, respectively, to predict the water level data of Lake Mead from 2022 to 2050, and to compare and analyze them.
