论文标题
贝叶斯估计游戏中的主队赢得国家篮球协会游戏的可能性
Bayesian estimation of in-game home team win probability for National Basketball Association games
论文作者
论文摘要
Maddox等。 （2022）为大学篮球建立了新的胜利概率估计，并将结果与先前的Stern方法（1994），Desphande和Jensen（2016）和Benz（2019）进行了比较。本文提出了Maddox等人的方法的修改。 （2022）对于NBA游戏，并研究了模型的性能。开发了对模型的增强功能，并将结果调整后的模型与现有方法和ESPN对应物进行了比较。为了说明公用事业，所有方法均适用于2019年11月23日芝加哥公牛与夏洛特黄蜂队之间的比赛。
Maddox, et al. (2022) establish a new win probability estimation for college basketball and compared the results with previous methods of Stern (1994), Desphande and Jensen (2016) and Benz (2019). This paper proposes modifications to the approach of Maddox, et al. (2022) for the NBA game and investigates the performance of the model. Enhancements to the model are developed, and the resulting adjusted model is compared with existing methods and to the ESPN counterpart. To illustrate utility, all methods are applied to the November 23, 2019 game between the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Hornets.
