论文标题

DESCN:深层整个空间跨网络,用于个人治疗效果估计

DESCN: Deep Entire Space Cross Networks for Individual Treatment Effect Estimation

论文作者

Zhong, Kailiang, Xiao, Fengtong, Ren, Yan, Liang, Yaorong, Yao, Wenqing, Yang, Xiaofeng, Cen, Ling

论文摘要

因果推论在电子商务和精确医学等各个领域都有广泛的应用,其性能在很大程度上取决于对个体治疗效果(ITE)的准确估计。通常,通过在其各个样品空间中分别对处理和控制响应函数进行建模来预测ITE。但是,这种方法通常在实践中遇到两个问题,即由于治疗偏见而导致的治疗组和对照组之间的分布分布,以及其人口大小的显着样本失衡。本文提出了深层空间跨网络(DESCN),以从端到端的角度模拟治疗效果。 DESCN以多任务学习方式捕获了治疗倾向,反应和隐藏治疗效果的综合信息。我们的方法共同学习了整个样品空间中的治疗和反应功能,以避免治疗偏见,并采用中级伪治疗效应预测网络来减轻样品失衡。在合成数据集和电子商务凭证分销业务的大规模生产数据集上进行了广泛的实验。结果表明,DESCN可以成功提高ITE估计的准确性并提高提升排名的性能。发布生产数据集和源代码的样本是为了促进社区中未来的研究,据我们所知,这是首个大型公共偏见治疗数据集用于因果推断。

Causal Inference has wide applications in various areas such as E-commerce and precision medicine, and its performance heavily relies on the accurate estimation of the Individual Treatment Effect (ITE). Conventionally, ITE is predicted by modeling the treated and control response functions separately in their individual sample spaces. However, such an approach usually encounters two issues in practice, i.e. divergent distribution between treated and control groups due to treatment bias, and significant sample imbalance of their population sizes. This paper proposes Deep Entire Space Cross Networks (DESCN) to model treatment effects from an end-to-end perspective. DESCN captures the integrated information of the treatment propensity, the response, and the hidden treatment effect through a cross network in a multi-task learning manner. Our method jointly learns the treatment and response functions in the entire sample space to avoid treatment bias and employs an intermediate pseudo treatment effect prediction network to relieve sample imbalance. Extensive experiments are conducted on a synthetic dataset and a large-scaled production dataset from the E-commerce voucher distribution business. The results indicate that DESCN can successfully enhance the accuracy of ITE estimation and improve the uplift ranking performance. A sample of the production dataset and the source code are released to facilitate future research in the community, which is, to the best of our knowledge, the first large-scale public biased treatment dataset for causal inference.

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