论文标题

小额信贷的学习和控制观点

A Learning and Control Perspective for Microfinance

论文作者

Kurniawan, Christian, Deng, Xiyu, Chakraborty, Adhiraj, Gueye, Assane, Chen, Niangjun, Nakahira, Yorie

论文摘要

尽管小额信贷的贫困潜力很大,但由于违约率高,面临可持续性的困难。尽管常规金融中的许多方法都可以估计信用评分和违约概率,但由于以下独特特征,这些方法并不直接适用于小额信贷:a)探索未探索的(发​​展)地区(例如非洲农村地区)没有足够的先前贷款数据来实现小额信贷机构(MFIS)(MFIS)来建立信用评分系统; b)小额信贷申请人可能难以为MFI提供足够的信息来准确预测默认概率; c)许多MFI使用集团责任(而不是抵押)来确保还款。在这里,我们提出了一种新颖的控制理论小额信贷模型,该模型解释了这些特征。我们构建了一种算法,以学习实现财务包容,公平,社会福利和可持续性的小额信贷决策政策。我们将收敛条件表征为帕累托 - 优势和收敛速度。我们在许多真实和合成的数据集中证明,提出的方法解释了团体责任引起的复杂性,以在提供足够的贷款来建立信用评分系统之前以及由于缺少信息而无法准确估算的申请人之前产生可靠的决策。据我们所知,本文是第一个连接小额信贷和控制理论的论文。我们设想该连接将使安全的学习和控制技术有助于现代化小额信贷和减轻贫困。

Microfinance, despite its significant potential for poverty reduction, is facing sustainability hardships due to high default rates. Although many methods in regular finance can estimate credit scores and default probabilities, these methods are not directly applicable to microfinance due to the following unique characteristics: a) under-explored (developing) areas such as rural Africa do not have sufficient prior loan data for microfinance institutions (MFIs) to establish a credit scoring system; b) microfinance applicants may have difficulty providing sufficient information for MFIs to accurately predict default probabilities; and c) many MFIs use group liability (instead of collateral) to secure repayment. Here, we present a novel control-theoretic model of microfinance that accounts for these characteristics. We construct an algorithm to learn microfinance decision policies that achieve financial inclusion, fairness, social welfare, and sustainability. We characterize the convergence conditions to Pareto-optimum and the convergence speeds. We demonstrate, in numerous real and synthetic datasets, that the proposed method accounts for the complexities induced by group liability to produce robust decisions before sufficient loans are given to establish credit scoring systems and for applicants whose default probability cannot be accurately estimated due to missing information. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to connect microfinance and control theory. We envision that the connection will enable safe learning and control techniques to help modernize microfinance and alleviate poverty.

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