论文标题
听用户，但只有85％的时间：黑天鹅如何在数据驱动的世界中节省创新
Listen to Users, but Only 85% of the Time: How Black Swans Can Save Innovation in a Data-Driven World
论文作者
论文摘要
数据驱动的设计是越来越多的数字企业所包含的成功的成功因素。同时，学者和从业者都警告说，几乎所有内容都必须通过数字进行测试和证明时，可以扼杀创造力和创新。本文认为，塔莱布的黑天鹅理论可以解决这一难题。它表明在线实验以及数字设计是脂肪尾现象，因此容易出现黑天鹅。它介绍了黑天鹅设计的概念 - “疯狂”设计，仅在事后才有意义 - 以及四个特定的标准。为了确保逐步改进及其创新潜力，企业应采用塔勒布的杠铃战略：将85-90％的资源投入到数据驱动的方法中，将10-15％的资源投入到潜在的黑天鹅上。
Data-driven design is a proven success factor that more and more digital businesses embrace. At the same time, academics and practitioners alike warn that when virtually everything must be tested and proven with numbers, that can stifle creativity and innovation. This article argues that Taleb's Black Swan theory can solve this dilemma. It shows that online experimentation, and therefore digital design, are fat-tailed phenomena and, hence, prone to Black Swans. It introduces the notion of Black Swan designs -- "crazy" designs that make sense only in hindsight -- along with four specific criteria. To ensure incremental improvements and their potential for innovation, businesses should apply Taleb's barbell strategy: Invest 85-90% of resources into data-driven approaches and 10-15% into potential Black Swans.
