论文标题
广泛的游击队大部分地区大多在全国范围内取消，但减少了选举竞争
Widespread Partisan Gerrymandering Mostly Cancels Nationally, but Reduces Electoral Competition
论文作者
论文摘要
美国许多州的国会区线都是由游击党演员绘制的，引起了人们对格里曼德的担忧。为了将重新划分的党派效应与其他因素的影响（包括地理和重新分配规则）的影响区分开来，我们将根据该计划的美国房屋的政党组成与一套替代模拟计划的计划进行比较，这些计划是无党派基线的替代模拟计划。我们发现，游击队在2020年的重新划分周期中广泛存在，但是它在国家一级产生的大多数选举偏见，平均使共和党人平均两个席位。地理和重新划分规则分别造成了中等的亲人偏见。最后，我们发现游击队的党派减少了选举竞争，使美国众议院的党派组成降低了对国家投票的转变的反应。
Congressional district lines in many U.S. states are drawn by partisan actors, raising concerns about gerrymandering. To separate the partisan effects of redistricting from the effects of other factors including geography and redistricting rules, we compare possible party compositions of the U.S. House under the enacted plan to those under a set of alternative simulated plans that serve as a non-partisan baseline. We find that partisan gerrymandering is widespread in the 2020 redistricting cycle, but most of the electoral bias it creates cancels at the national level, giving Republicans two additional seats on average. Geography and redistricting rules separately contribute a moderate pro-Republican bias. Finally, we find that partisan gerrymandering reduces electoral competition and makes the partisan composition of the U.S. House less responsive to shifts in the national vote.
