论文标题
为什么经济理论和政策失败？未注意的变量和被忽视的经济学
Why Economic Theories and Policies Fail? Unnoticed Variables and Overlooked Economics
论文作者
论文摘要
经济理论的准确性和经济政策的效率严格取决于选择经济变量和过程，主要负责对经济现实的描述。这说明了对任何可能的经济变量评估的总体问题和可用于经济进化的过程。我们表明，当前经济理论所描述的经济变量和过程仅构成了负责经济动态的因素的一小部分。我们考虑了许多未注明的经济变量，并忽略了这些经济过程，这些变量决定了实际经济学的国家和预测。我们认为集体经济变量，集体交易和期望，经济变量和交易的平均风险，集体速度以及经济变量的流动，交易和期望是经济发展的被忽视的因素。我们介绍了资产价格的基于市场的概率，并考虑了市场随机性对宏观经济变量随机性的未知影响。我们介绍了由连续数字风险等级组成的经济领域，并概述了经济领域的界限会导致集体变量，交易和期望的固有周期性运动，这些固有的周期性运动是负责观察到的业务周期的。我们对理论经济学和政策决策的未引人注目和被忽视的因素的处理为学术研究人员，经济当局和高级政治家提供了数十年的广泛研究。
Accuracy of economic theories and efficiency of economic policy strictly depend on the choice of the economic variables and processes mostly liable for description of economic reality. That states the general problem of assessment of any possible economic variables and processes chargeable for economic evolution. We show that economic variables and processes described by current economic theories constitute only a negligible fraction of factors responsible for economic dynamics. We consider numerous unnoted economic variables and overlooked economic processes those determine the states and predictions of the real economics. We regard collective economic variables, collective transactions and expectations, mean risks of economic variables and transactions, collective velocities and flows of economic variables, transactions and expectations as overlooked factors of economic evolution. We introduce market-based probability of the asset price and consider unnoticed influence of market stochasticity on randomness of macroeconomic variables. We introduce economic domain composed by continuous numeric risk grades and outline that the bounds of the economic domain result in unnoticed inherent cyclical motion of collective variables, transactions and expectations those are responsible for observed business cycles. Our treatment of unnoticed and overlooked factors of theoretical economics and policy decisions preserves a wide field of studies for many decades for academic researchers, economic authorities and high-level politicians.
