论文标题
不关注窗帘背后的模型
Pay No Attention to the Model Behind the Curtain
论文作者
论文摘要
许多广泛使用的模型等于构成数字的精致手段 - 但是一旦产生了数字，它往往会认真对待，并且很少对其来源（模型）进行仔细检查。许多广泛使用的模型几乎没有与他们声称要解释的现实现象的联系。建模以支持政策决策的常见步骤，例如将不同的事物置于同一规模上，可能与现实相抵触。并非所有的成本和收益都可以按照相同的规模，并不是所有的不确定性都可以表示为概率，而并非所有模型参数都可以衡量他们所估计的内容。这些想法以地震学，风力涡轮鸟死亡，足球惩罚卡，学术界的性别偏见和气候政策的例子进行了说明。
Many widely used models amount to an elaborate means of making up numbers--but once a number has been produced, it tends to be taken seriously and its source (the model) is rarely examined carefully. Many widely used models have little connection to the real-world phenomena they purport to explain. Common steps in modeling to support policy decisions, such as putting disparate things on the same scale, may conflict with reality. Not all costs and benefits can be put on the same scale, not all uncertainties can be expressed as probabilities, and not all model parameters measure what they purport to measure. These ideas are illustrated with examples from seismology, wind-turbine bird deaths, soccer penalty cards, gender bias in academia, and climate policy.
