论文标题
使用自适应核平滑和不均匀的摘要统计数据探索Groningen气体中的地震危险
Exploring seismic hazard in the Groningen gas field using adaptive kernel smoothing and inhomogeneous summary statistics
论文作者
论文摘要
1959年，格罗宁根（Groningen）发现天然气一直是荷兰经济的巨大福音。从1990年代开始，天然气产量导致了诱导的地震性。在本文中，我们对时空地震目录进行了全面的探索性分析。我们开发了一种非参数自适应核平滑技术，以估计时空危害图并插入基于每月良好的气体生产统计数据。第二和高阶不均匀摘要统计数据用于表明预测地震危险的最先进的速率和状态模型未能捕获地震目录中的事件间相互作用。基于这些发现，我们建议一种修改的速率和状态模型，该模型还考虑了气体产量量的变化和孔隙压力场中的不确定性。
The discovery of gas in Groningen in 1959 has been a massive boon to the Dutch economy. From the 1990s onwards though, gas production has led to induced seismicity. In this paper, we carry out a comprehensive exploratory analysis of the spatio-temporal earthquake catalogue. We develop a non-parametric adaptive kernel smoothing technique to estimate the spatio-temporal hazard map and to interpolate monthly well-based gas production statistics. Second- and higher-order inhomogeneous summary statistics are used to show that the state of the art rate-and-state models for the prediction of seismic hazard fail to capture inter-event interaction in the earthquake catalogue. Based on these findings, we suggest a modified rate-and-state model that also takes into account changes in gas production volumes and uncertainty in the pore pressure field.
